外資上周五（22日）在台股翻多，同時投信、自營商、四大基金、代操基金、八大公股行庫等五大勢力也備妥銀彈，新一波資金潮來臨，帶動國泰金、裕隆、台積電等15檔個股衝鋒。
資料來源：
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2014年8月23日 星期六
「轉載」：外資上周五（22日）在台股翻多‧‧‧
轉載：「金九銀十」消費旺季啟動
「金九銀十」消費旺季啟動，受惠中秋連假、十一黃金周的加持，中國大陸13億人口的消費商機，帶動內需及消費產業，如百貨、觀光、3C賣場等營運攀升，14檔概念股將喜迎錢潮。
今年中秋節是在9月8日，兩岸都有三天連假，隨後大陸的十一長假緊接著登場，將從10月1日起至7日，連放七天。在兩大假期的加乘效果下，被市場稱之為「金九銀十」的消費旺季。
觀察近期國際股市重拾漲勢，其中，大陸因預期13億人民將利用假期積極消費，第3季、4季的零售數據可望強勁，積極反映在股市的表現，上證、深圳指數近一個月漲幅約一成。
日盛投顧總經理李秀利表示，時序進入「金九銀十」消費旺季，根據過去經驗，這段期間大陸消費類股及陸股表現相對亮麗，在現階段全球股市震盪之際，可作為參考方向。
雖然近年大陸薪資飛漲，勞動成本水漲船高，但反映在內需消費市場上，中低階平板、智慧型手機等消費電子拉貨力道逐漸增強，食品、家電、汽車、觀光等傳產業都有穩健獲利成長的營收表現。
環視台股盤面上，具備業績成長、法人買超的「金九銀十」概念股，3C賣場包括藍天、燦坤；內需消費包括統一、全家、潤泰全；汽車有裕隆、和大；觀光有晶華、六福；航空則有華航、長榮航等。
資料來源：經濟日報
今年中秋節是在9月8日，兩岸都有三天連假，隨後大陸的十一長假緊接著登場，將從10月1日起至7日，連放七天。在兩大假期的加乘效果下，被市場稱之為「金九銀十」的消費旺季。
觀察近期國際股市重拾漲勢，其中，大陸因預期13億人民將利用假期積極消費，第3季、4季的零售數據可望強勁，積極反映在股市的表現，上證、深圳指數近一個月漲幅約一成。
日盛投顧總經理李秀利表示，時序進入「金九銀十」消費旺季，根據過去經驗，這段期間大陸消費類股及陸股表現相對亮麗，在現階段全球股市震盪之際，可作為參考方向。
雖然近年大陸薪資飛漲，勞動成本水漲船高，但反映在內需消費市場上，中低階平板、智慧型手機等消費電子拉貨力道逐漸增強，食品、家電、汽車、觀光等傳產業都有穩健獲利成長的營收表現。
環視台股盤面上，具備業績成長、法人買超的「金九銀十」概念股，3C賣場包括藍天、燦坤；內需消費包括統一、全家、潤泰全；汽車有裕隆、和大；觀光有晶華、六福；航空則有華航、長榮航等。
資料來源：經濟日報
2014年6月10日 星期二
2014年4月28日 星期一
【轉載】舊的正常收益為太平洋投資管理公司認為“新目標”美國經濟增長
“新常態”美國經濟正在開始看起來更像是一個經典的擴張。
前景改善的背後：消費者工作下來他們的債務後，花更多的自由，從政府預算約束，住房的恢復和拖動少繼續寬鬆的貨幣政策。
所謂“新常態”是由建築，推廣在2009年太平洋投資管理公司的共同創始人和首席投資官，和前首席執行官穆罕默德·埃里安來形容低回報的時代，提高政府監管，在世界經濟削弱美國的影響力並為發展中國家發揮更大的作用。該術語由彭博新聞社記者富米勒。
格羅斯和埃爾 - 埃利安盯住美國經濟增長在以下三至五年的2％左右，一期已接近尾聲。
“新目標”
“你會看到在未來的幾年是我們要去頭回一個新的目的地，” 斯科特·馬瑟，為太平洋投資管理公司的六副首席投資官員之一，在4月25日接受彭博電台採訪時說。美國經濟增長公司的預測提高到了高2％的水平，“這比我們已經經歷了幾年的成長子2％的水平更好，”他說。
平均預測的經濟學家彭博調查這個月要求增長加速到至少3％的2014年的休息和隨後兩年的速度。杜塔認為3.5％的擴張在未來三個季度，並表示為隨後兩年3％“似乎是合理的”。
該預測是在每季度的3.1％的年平均增長率從1980年至2007年經濟衰退的起始行。自2009年6月自1930年代以來最深的經濟衰退的結束，季度平均增長率為2.4％。這比看到在繼前三次經濟衰退可比18季期間的平均3.8％的速度較慢。
持久鬆弛
皮卡將進來持久鬆弛的臉在勞動力市場，這是保持美聯儲承諾寬鬆政策，以實現充分就業和2％的通貨膨脹率，主席珍妮特·耶倫在4月16日講話中說。失業率6.7％三月仍高於5.2％至5.6％的水平，政策制定者考慮充分就業。
“這個缺口依然顯著，並在我們的基準預測，這將需要兩年多收，”耶倫，67，紐約經濟俱樂部說。
聯邦公開市場委員會參與者預測的2.8％的國內生產總值增長率為3％的2014年，3％，2015年3.2％和2.5％至3％的2016年。
金融危機
“許多預報員，我會把我自己當中，認為我們正在尋找一個非常好的潛力，更快的增長在美國和對金融危機的巨大衝擊全面復甦持續的進展，”伯南克說。
聯邦公開市場委員會上月表示，其基準利率可能會保持低位一個“相當長的時間”債券購買計劃結束後。美聯儲，持有為期兩天的政策會議從明天開始，表示將在考慮何時提高利率衡量一個“廣泛的信息”。
貨幣政策
美聯儲官員在上個月的政策聲明，提升預測漲幅在勞動力市場發布的預測及預測的主要利率將上升到1％，到2015年年底。
“增長加快，2014年和2015年的樓市復甦正在獲得牽引力和家庭資產負債表都好得多，說：”克里斯托夫Barraud，首席經濟學家市場證券律師事務所在巴黎誰一直是美國經濟的頂部預報過去兩年來，根據彭博彙編的數據。“公共支出將反彈後的聯邦赤字和顯著盈餘的國家”水平下降。“
Barraud預見“大幅反彈”在今年的第二季度，以“接近4％”的增長，其次是為今年餘下時間一率“略高於3％。” 從長遠來看，他預測“GDP將返回大約在2000-2007年期間，即2.7％，達到的水平。”
歐洲恢復
全球經濟增長，其中包括從區域債務危機在歐洲的恢復，也幫助了美國的全球經濟可能會在3.6％的速度在2014年到2016年擴大，3.9％在2015年和4％，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）本月表示。這是從2013年的估計3％。
“全球經濟增長加快，”Barraud說，通過恢復在日本的幫助下，“在中國微型刺激措施，並在新興國家的財政和貨幣調整。”
美國勞動力市場呈現出癒合的跡象也從10％在2010年10月失業率下降。美國非農就業上升，平均187,000一個月過去八個月，勞工部的數據顯示。
經濟學家更悲觀的預測仍然認為他們的意見會被平反。
歷史趨勢
增長依然“低於歷史趨勢，”戈登，誰預測的擴大可能會停止在未來的世紀中說，紙由經濟研究國家統計局在2012年8月出版。創新的貢獻，以更高的生活水平將放緩，而逆風如由於人口老齡化，增加收入不平等將減少增長，他說。
只是因為經濟擴張並不意味著每個人股的好處，他說。GDP數據反映“的最高的1％誰每年累計至少有一半的年收入增長收入不斷上升，”他說。
薩默斯說，他仍然關注美國可能是一個“長期停滯”，即美聯儲無法提供足夠的刺激，而不會危及金融穩定提供充分就業。
“或許將加速增長，但如果它與目前的財務狀況，多久會前，我們先來看看金融過剩主要出現？”薩默斯在接受彭博電視台採訪4月25日說，“我們需要更多的刺激經濟增長的什麼地方比寬鬆的貨幣政策等。“
人口老齡化
PIMCO的格羅斯在接受彭博電台採訪時4月4日表示，雖然美國擁有“良好的2014擺在我們面前，”這個國家仍然是“伴隨著很多其他結構性因素”，如人口老齡化面臨放緩的生產力。
華爾街的經濟學家，近期癒合家庭和政府財政遠遠超過大約持續放緩的擔憂。
“也許2014年我們轉回到老正常，沒有新的正常的，我們要看到經濟增長較快的一年，”他說。“我認為我們正在與新的正常現象做了。”
要聯繫記者就這個故事：史蒂夫馬修斯在亞特蘭大smatthews@bloomberg.net
轉載自bloomberg.com
2014年2月18日 星期二
Soros doubles a bearish bet on the S&P 500, to the tune of $1.3 billion
Soros doubles a bearish bet on the S&P 500, to the tune of $1.3 billion
Soros Fund Management has doubled up a bet that the S&P 500 is headed for a fall. Within Friday’s 13F filings news was the revelation that the firm, founded by legendary investor George Soros, increased a put position on the S&P 500 ETF by a whopping 154% in the fourth quarter, compared with the third. (A put or short position basically gives the owner the right to sell a security at a set price for a limited time, and in making such a bet, an investor generally believes the security is going to decline.)
The value of that holding, the biggest position in the fund, has risen to $1.3 billion from around $470 million. It now makes up a 11.13% chunk of all reported holdings. It had been cut to 5.14% in the third quarter, from 13.54% in the second quarter, which itself marked another dramatic lift on the bearish call. The numbers can be found at Whalewisdom.com, which makes them slightly easier to digest than the actual SEC filing. Writing on the Bullion Baron blog, Joseph has been quick to alert readers to the hedge fund’s bets on the S&P 500, offering up a summary of changes to that call from mid-2011 onward. For the four quarters of 2013, that short has followed a pattern of big highs and big lows. Of course, Joseph said, the bearish S&P call could be a hedge and, as it’s six weeks into the next reporting period, it may have already been reduced or increased. But he said it could also be indicative of jitters: In January, Soros highlighted risks coming out of China and drew a comparison with the lead-up to the crash of 2008.
“It’s possible that the SPY puts are just a hedge, weighed against other long positions he holds in specific stocks. However, the views he expressed in this article lead me to believe he thinks another crisis is brewing (led by China on this occasion) and the SPY put position could be an attempt profit from it,” says Joseph.
The second- and third-biggest positions in the 13F were a fresh put on the Energy Select Sector SPDR fund and a big jump in holds of Israeli pharmaceutical maker Teva. Read about more changes in Soros’s quarterly holdings here. Soros and his hedge fund aren’t alone if they’re feeling unease at the bull run for markets. It’s been roughly 28 months since a substantial correction for the S&P 500, which is down 0.5% for the year after having endured a pullback earlier this month, triggered in part by jitters over emerging markets. Strategists have been debating about when and how the correction is going to happen.
As for whether investors should ape the 13F followings of others, MarketWatch’s Bill Watts pointed out last week that the 45-day lag in the holdings is particularly tricky when it comes to calls like a huge bearish bet on the S&P 500. And he found that while hedge funds outperform on the upside, they do far worse on the downside. It was Soros himself who famously once said: “I rely a great deal on animal instincts.” And as we all know, George’s made some big, crazy, winning bets in the past.
Soros Fund Management has doubled up a bet that the S&P 500 is headed for a fall. Within Friday’s 13F filings news was the revelation that the firm, founded by legendary investor George Soros, increased a put position on the S&P 500 ETF by a whopping 154% in the fourth quarter, compared with the third. (A put or short position basically gives the owner the right to sell a security at a set price for a limited time, and in making such a bet, an investor generally believes the security is going to decline.)
The value of that holding, the biggest position in the fund, has risen to $1.3 billion from around $470 million. It now makes up a 11.13% chunk of all reported holdings. It had been cut to 5.14% in the third quarter, from 13.54% in the second quarter, which itself marked another dramatic lift on the bearish call. The numbers can be found at Whalewisdom.com, which makes them slightly easier to digest than the actual SEC filing. Writing on the Bullion Baron blog, Joseph has been quick to alert readers to the hedge fund’s bets on the S&P 500, offering up a summary of changes to that call from mid-2011 onward. For the four quarters of 2013, that short has followed a pattern of big highs and big lows. Of course, Joseph said, the bearish S&P call could be a hedge and, as it’s six weeks into the next reporting period, it may have already been reduced or increased. But he said it could also be indicative of jitters: In January, Soros highlighted risks coming out of China and drew a comparison with the lead-up to the crash of 2008.
“It’s possible that the SPY puts are just a hedge, weighed against other long positions he holds in specific stocks. However, the views he expressed in this article lead me to believe he thinks another crisis is brewing (led by China on this occasion) and the SPY put position could be an attempt profit from it,” says Joseph.
The second- and third-biggest positions in the 13F were a fresh put on the Energy Select Sector SPDR fund and a big jump in holds of Israeli pharmaceutical maker Teva. Read about more changes in Soros’s quarterly holdings here. Soros and his hedge fund aren’t alone if they’re feeling unease at the bull run for markets. It’s been roughly 28 months since a substantial correction for the S&P 500, which is down 0.5% for the year after having endured a pullback earlier this month, triggered in part by jitters over emerging markets. Strategists have been debating about when and how the correction is going to happen.
As for whether investors should ape the 13F followings of others, MarketWatch’s Bill Watts pointed out last week that the 45-day lag in the holdings is particularly tricky when it comes to calls like a huge bearish bet on the S&P 500. And he found that while hedge funds outperform on the upside, they do far worse on the downside. It was Soros himself who famously once said: “I rely a great deal on animal instincts.” And as we all know, George’s made some big, crazy, winning bets in the past.
2014年1月6日 星期一
Don’t worry too much about the U.S. or Europe, says George Soros.
Don’t worry too much about the U.S. or Europe, says George Soros.
The major uncertainty facing the world today is China, writes the billionaire investor in a column for the Project Syndicate website. He says: “There is an unresolved self-contradiction in China’s current policies: restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years.” The People’s Bank of China moved to rein in debt in 2012, but then the world’s No. 2 economy experienced “real distress,” Soros writes. So China’s Communist Party reasserted its supremacy, ordering steelmakers to restart their furnaces and bankers to ease credit.
China’s economy turned around, and party leaders also announced major reforms in November. “These developments are largely responsible for the recent improvement in the global outlook,” Soros says.
What happens next? The 83-year-old Hungarian-American sees two possibilities: “A successful transition in China will most likely entail political as well as economic reforms, while failure would undermine still-widespread trust in the country’s political leadership, resulting in repression at home and military confrontation abroad.” Beyond China, Soros argues that a lack of proper global governance is the “other great unresolved problem.” That could continue indefinitely, while the Chinese conundrum will come to a head in the next few years, he says. Regarding the U.S., Soros sounds upbeat, pointing to themes like the energy boom, less polarization lately in politics and improvements in the banking and housing sectors. When it comes to Europe, he says the “revival of a threat from Russia may reverse the prevailing trend toward European disintegration.”
The major uncertainty facing the world today is China, writes the billionaire investor in a column for the Project Syndicate website. He says: “There is an unresolved self-contradiction in China’s current policies: restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years.” The People’s Bank of China moved to rein in debt in 2012, but then the world’s No. 2 economy experienced “real distress,” Soros writes. So China’s Communist Party reasserted its supremacy, ordering steelmakers to restart their furnaces and bankers to ease credit.
China’s economy turned around, and party leaders also announced major reforms in November. “These developments are largely responsible for the recent improvement in the global outlook,” Soros says.
What happens next? The 83-year-old Hungarian-American sees two possibilities: “A successful transition in China will most likely entail political as well as economic reforms, while failure would undermine still-widespread trust in the country’s political leadership, resulting in repression at home and military confrontation abroad.” Beyond China, Soros argues that a lack of proper global governance is the “other great unresolved problem.” That could continue indefinitely, while the Chinese conundrum will come to a head in the next few years, he says. Regarding the U.S., Soros sounds upbeat, pointing to themes like the energy boom, less polarization lately in politics and improvements in the banking and housing sectors. When it comes to Europe, he says the “revival of a threat from Russia may reverse the prevailing trend toward European disintegration.”
中國的三大挑戰，在2014年
中國的三大挑戰，在2014年
在2014年面對曦的第一個挑戰無疑是實現他的經濟改革方案，這引起了雙方的興奮和懷疑的態度，因為它首次亮相於11月中旬。樂觀主義者指向該程序包的宏偉目標，作為曦的改革承諾的證據，而批評者舉出其模糊性和缺乏具體的時間表為理由，謹慎。
為了證明懷疑者錯了，熙必須翻譯成修辭策略和政策轉化為具體的，可衡量的結果。這意味著通過實施僅需要行政行為的改革，如發放許可證，以私人銀行，通過消除進入壁壘的民營企業，放開利率和匯率，並延長居留權利，在小城市農民工日益激烈的競爭開始了新的一年和城鎮。曦將不得不遵循這些措施與立法，正式確定了一些最重要的改革。在這裡，土地改革將是最困難的問題。習近平的議程提供了增加財產權利，農民只含糊的承諾，而近期政府的言論表明，官僚希望限制這種權利。在此背景下，習近平必須說服公眾，他不會允許既得利益集團阻止改革。習近平面臨在2014年的第二個主要挑戰是維持他的廣受歡迎-和巨大的風險-反腐敗鬥爭。鑑於曦已經排除了動員中國公眾支持他的改革計劃，他唯一迫使官僚遵守他的議程的手段是腐敗調查和起訴的威脅。但這個策略將難以執行，不僅由於腐敗的巨大規模，而且要在派別和利益集團之間分配租金的關鍵作用。反腐敗鬥爭的目標大批中國官員很可能會導致疏離，不滿，和統治精英之間的分裂。
習近平的意圖真正的考驗將是他的政府是否起訴周永康，中央政治局常委，中共的最高決策機構的一名前成員。據官方報導，習近平的反貪絞索已經收緊週左右，因為他的許多前任副手逮捕。但起訴政治局常委，甚至退休會員將打破長期以來的禁忌。鄧小平開始，後毛澤東時代的制度一直努力，以確保其高級官員的人身安全，從而避免轉向內部權力鬥爭為生命和死亡競賽中，沒有人是安全的毛澤東的錯誤。因此，雖然普通的政治局委員已針對過去（三人都被關押），它的常務委員會的組成人員已經關閉的限制。所以現在夕面臨兩難選擇。如果他遵守不成文的規則對起訴甚至是前人大常委會委員，他可能破壞他的反腐敗運動的可信度。但是如果他把他在監獄裡的前同事，他可能會破壞凝聚力躋身中國最高領導層。
習近平面臨的是避免與日本進行不必要的衝突的第三個挑戰。中國最近的防空識別區的公告涵蓋了有爭議的尖閣諸島（稱為釣魚島中國），其次是日本首相安倍晉三訪華的爭議靖國神社，表明兩國關係-已經在40的最低點年-將繼續惡化。羲和他的顧問們不應該屈從於虛幻的信念，這樣的衝突會提高他們的地位與中國公眾。日本與美國的支持，會造成對中國屈辱的軍事失敗。他的政治前途取決於他兌現他的改革承諾的能力，過去的事情曦需要的是一個外交政策分心-更何況是一個災難性的軍事意外事故。賭注是很高的羲和中國在2014年。這意味著賭注是很高的，為世界其他地區也是如此。
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